Yesterday evening I posted a bunch of predictions without resorting to data mining, Twitter analysis or reading anything by Nate Silver. Just good old guessing. In terms of a result then guessing didn’t do me too bad. Result 14/24 (58.3%)

[Update: Turns out that FiveThirtyEight’s predictions in the “top six” were the same,we got 5/6 (83%) and missed on the best director. I would have liked to have seen how Nate and Co. managed on the other categories which are much harder to predict.]

BEST PICTURE

Winner: Birdman Prediction: Birdman

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Winner: Eddie Redmayne Prediction: Eddie Redmayne

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Winner: Julianne Moore Prediction: Julianne Moore

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Winner: J.K. Simmons Prediction: J.K. Simmons

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Winner: Patricia Arquette Prediction: Patricia Arquette

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Winner: Big Hero 6 Prediction: How To Train Your Dragon 2

CINEMAPHOTOGRAPHY

Winner: Birdman Prediction: Birdman

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

DIRECTING

Winner: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman) Prediction: Richard Linklater

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: CitizenFour Prediction: CitizenFour

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Winner: Crisis Line: Veterans Press 1 Prediction: Crisis Line: Veterans Press 1

FILM EDITING

Winner: Whiplash Prediction: The Imitation Game

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Winner: Ida Prediction: Ida

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

MUSIC, ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: Alexandre Desplat Prediction: Hans Zimmer

MUSIC, ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: Glory from Selma Prediction: “I’m Not Gonna Miss You”

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel Prediction: Into The Woods

SHORT FILM, ANIMATED

Winner: Feast Prediction: Feast

SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION

Winner: The Phone Call Prediction: Boogaloo and Graham

SOUND EDITING

Winner: American Sniper Prediction: The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies

SOUND MIXING

Winner: Whiplash Prediction: American Sniper

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Interstellar Prediction: Guardians Of The Galaxy

WRITING, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: The Imitation Game Prediction: The Imitation Game

WRITING, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Birdman Prediction: Birdman

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